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Lavra: how and when

Judging by what is happening today in the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra, we can conclude that the authorities will not risk forcibly expelling the UOC from the territory of the monastery on this very day. Naturally, the resonance around the event and the number of pilgrims in the Lavra today who are ready to defend the monastery are direct obstacles. In the same way, we dare to assume that nothing egregious will happen tonight either. All the same, Kyiv is not Ivano-Frankivsk, but the level of the Lavra issue is state, not regional.

We dare to predict that events will develop approximately as follows. Tomorrow, as it was already announced by the Ministry of Culture, a commission “for the transfer of property”, a list of which was compiled and published, will descend on the Lavra. If suddenly they meet opposition from officials of the UOC, for example, Metropolitan Pavel, this fact will be recorded and taken into account. Then, perhaps right there, or maybe somewhere later, the governor and several of the most active representatives of the brethren will be detained on charges of obstructing the performance of duties by state officials. Considering that a separate part of the brethren has already left the Lavra, the risk of being arrested will definitely affect the morale of those who remain, and they, with nowhere to go, will also leave the monastery. This is how the Lavra will be taken away.

Even if the authorities escalate with the involvement of radicals or special response police groups, then this will definitely not happen on those days when the Lavra will be full of people. They are well aware that in such a scenario, clashes are inevitable, which are now not favorable for their image, especially after the events in Ivano-Frankivsk. This scenario is possible only when it is least expected.

We, of course, rely on God’s will, but no one has canceled the real assessment of the situation either.

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